We finished the NBA regular season strong, with correct guesses on 41 of 56 games this past week — 73% accuracy. Overall, our season average was roughly 65%. This is significantly lower than those returned by the bookies this year, whose accuracy overall sat just under 70%. The differences there likely have much to do with information relating to individual players (eg injuries) that would be difficult to take into account in our team-centric modeling approach. It also took us a number of weeks to come up with a solid way of choosing our model’s hyperparameters. With these issues identified/settled, we anticipate improvements on these numbers next year. We won’t be modeling the NBA playoffs, so this will be our last basketball post for the current season — we had a blast!
With regards to the MLB, in our first week, we guessed correctly on 52/93 games, giving 56%. A somewhat poor result, fueled in part by the lackluster Giants. New predictions are up, with better accuracy hoped for this week!